Dugout Vault — Auto-Updated
The collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, 2026. Here's the countdown, what the betting markets think, and every major development, with sources.
Last updated October 15, 2026 · Checked daily
until the CBA expires · Dec 1, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET
Talks continue with a salary cap as the central fight. MLB's latest proposal (Oct 8) adds a 154-game season and a longer Division Series, all contingent on a cap the union calls a nonstarter. The league has told teams how to operate during a lockout.
New CBA before Dec 2
6%▲ 2
Will MLB and the MLBPA agree to a new CBA before December 2, 2026?
Oct 15, 2026 via Kalshi · 3 readings logged
2027 season starts by Apr 30
44%
Will the 2027 MLB season start before April 30, 2027?
Oct 14, 2026 via Covers (Kalshi)
Full 2027 schedule played
38%
Will more than 2,425 MLB games be played in 2027?
Oct 14, 2026 via Covers (Kalshi)
Prediction-market prices reflect traders' bets, not inside information. They move fast; check the market for the live number.
Latest MLB / owners proposal
Oct 8, 2026
Cuts the regular season to 154 games starting in 2029 with a weekly off day, expands the Division Series to best-of-seven, and lets higher seeds pick their opponents. Like the league's other offers, it only applies if players accept a salary cap and floor.
MLB.com →Latest MLBPA proposal
July 21, 2026
Keeps the 20-round draft and high school eligibility, opens eligibility to college sophomores, raises bonus pools, rejects hard-slot bonuses, allows draft-pick trades and moves the draft back to June. No union counter to the Oct. 8 proposal has been reported.
CBS Sports →| Issue | MLB / Owners | MLBPA / Players |
|---|---|---|
| Salary cap | $245.3M hard cap for 2027, including benefitsProposed May 28, 2026 · source | No cap. Interim union chief Bruce Meyer called a cap "institutionalized collusion."Proposed June 1, 2026 · source |
| Payroll minimum | $171.2M salary floor, including benefitsProposed May 28, 2026 · source | "Competitive integrity tax" on any team spending under $150MProposed May 27, 2026 · source |
| Luxury tax (CBT) | No published position | Threshold rises from $244M to $300M; no draft-pick penalties for exceeding itProposed May 27, 2026 · source |
| Revenue | 50-50 split of revenue with playersProposed May 28, 2026 · source | Lower-revenue clubs guaranteed at least $240M a year, with penalties if it isn't spent on payrollProposed May 27, 2026 · source |
| Minimum salary | $900K under two years of service (plus a $100K pre-arb bonus); $1M at two-plus yearsProposed June 25, 2026 · source | Raise from $780K to $1.5MProposed May 27, 2026 · source |
| Free agency | Accepts free agency after five years for players 30 and older; adds two offseason signing "quiet periods"Proposed Aug 27, 2026 · source | Free agency after five years of service for players 30 and olderProposed May 27, 2026 · source |
| Contract limits | Max five years and 15% of the cap to switch teams; "Cornerstone Player" deals up to six years and 16% to re-sign; no deferralsProposed June 25, 2026 · source | No limits. Called the offer misleading because it depends on a cap.Proposed June 25, 2026 · source |
| Qualifying offer | Eliminate (accepted the union's proposal)Proposed June 25, 2026 · source | EliminateProposed May 27, 2026 · source |
| Amateur draft | Cut from 20 rounds to 12, $200M hard-slot bonus system, high schoolers ineligible, plus an international draftProposed June 18, 2026 · source | Keep 20 rounds and high school eligibility, add college sophomores, bigger pools, no hard slots, allow pick trades, move back to JuneProposed July 21, 2026 · source |
| Rosters | 14-pitcher limit on the 26-man roster, weekly rosters set Mondays, optional assignments cut to fourProposed Aug 27, 2026 · source | 28-man rosters for the first 15 days, optional assignments cut to threeProposed July 1, 2026 · source |
| Schedule & playoffs | 154 games from 2029 with a weekly off day; best-of-seven Division Series; higher seeds choose opponentsProposed Oct 8, 2026 · source | No counter yet. Reviewing and will respond at the table.Proposed Oct 8, 2026 · source |
| Sports betting | No published position | Ban prop bets on individual players; let players sign sportsbook and prediction-market sponsorshipsProposed June 25, 2026 · source |
Salary cap
MLB / Owners
$245.3M hard cap for 2027, including benefitsProposed May 28, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
No cap. Interim union chief Bruce Meyer called a cap "institutionalized collusion."Proposed June 1, 2026 · sourcePayroll minimum
MLB / Owners
$171.2M salary floor, including benefitsProposed May 28, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
"Competitive integrity tax" on any team spending under $150MProposed May 27, 2026 · sourceLuxury tax (CBT)
MLB / Owners
No published positionMLBPA / Players
Threshold rises from $244M to $300M; no draft-pick penalties for exceeding itProposed May 27, 2026 · sourceRevenue
MLB / Owners
50-50 split of revenue with playersProposed May 28, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
Lower-revenue clubs guaranteed at least $240M a year, with penalties if it isn't spent on payrollProposed May 27, 2026 · sourceMinimum salary
MLB / Owners
$900K under two years of service (plus a $100K pre-arb bonus); $1M at two-plus yearsProposed June 25, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
Raise from $780K to $1.5MProposed May 27, 2026 · sourceFree agency
MLB / Owners
Accepts free agency after five years for players 30 and older; adds two offseason signing "quiet periods"Proposed Aug 27, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
Free agency after five years of service for players 30 and olderProposed May 27, 2026 · sourceContract limits
MLB / Owners
Max five years and 15% of the cap to switch teams; "Cornerstone Player" deals up to six years and 16% to re-sign; no deferralsProposed June 25, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
No limits. Called the offer misleading because it depends on a cap.Proposed June 25, 2026 · sourceQualifying offer
MLB / Owners
Eliminate (accepted the union's proposal)Proposed June 25, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
EliminateProposed May 27, 2026 · sourceAmateur draft
MLB / Owners
Cut from 20 rounds to 12, $200M hard-slot bonus system, high schoolers ineligible, plus an international draftProposed June 18, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
Keep 20 rounds and high school eligibility, add college sophomores, bigger pools, no hard slots, allow pick trades, move back to JuneProposed July 21, 2026 · sourceRosters
MLB / Owners
14-pitcher limit on the 26-man roster, weekly rosters set Mondays, optional assignments cut to fourProposed Aug 27, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
28-man rosters for the first 15 days, optional assignments cut to threeProposed July 1, 2026 · sourceSchedule & playoffs
MLB / Owners
154 games from 2029 with a weekly off day; best-of-seven Division Series; higher seeds choose opponentsProposed Oct 8, 2026 · sourceMLBPA / Players
No counter yet. Reviewing and will respond at the table.Proposed Oct 8, 2026 · sourceSports betting
MLB / Owners
No published positionMLBPA / Players
Ban prop bets on individual players; let players sign sportsbook and prediction-market sponsorshipsProposed June 25, 2026 · sourceEach cell is that side's most recent published position on the issue. Most MLB offers are contingent on the players accepting a salary cap. Terms are as reported; neither side publishes full proposals.
Mar 10, 2022
Current CBA signed
Ended the 99-day 2021–22 lockout.
Dec 1, 2026
CBA expires (11:59 p.m. ET)
Owners are widely expected to lock out players if there's no deal.
~Feb 9, 2027
Pitchers & catchers report (typical)
About 45 days before Opening Day.
~Mar 10, 2027
Likely deadline to revise the schedule
~Mar 15, 2027
162-game season likely no longer viable
Mar 25, 2027
Scheduled Opening Day
Opening Night is Mar 24.
Executives are told to say they expect the 2027 season to proceed and that ticket holders will be credited or refunded for canceled games. MLB will again pull player names and images from its website during a lockout.
Yahoo Sports →Changes would start in 2029 and are tied to the players accepting a salary cap. The MLBPA says it will respond at the table and calls the cap "a system that guts player rights and compensation."
TSN →Rosters set each Monday, a 14-pitcher limit, shorter IL stints and two offseason windows when free agents can't sign. Contingent on a cap.
CBS Sports →Keep 20 rounds and high school eligibility, add college sophomores, raise bonus pools, reject hard slots, allow pick trades and move the draft back to June.
CBS Sports →Owners have proposed a salary cap for the first time since 1994. Interim MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer: "Salary cap is the ultimate excuse not to compete." Manfred says ownership is "more united than any group in my entire time in baseball."
Fox News →28-man rosters for the first 15 days, fewer in-season options, earlier Rule 5 eligibility, and player access to club performance data and video.
CBS Sports →Max contracts of five years and 15% of the cap (six years and 16% to re-sign a "Cornerstone Player"), $900K–$1M minimums, no deferrals. The league accepted five-year free agency for players 30+ and ending the qualifying offer.
CBS Sports →Domestic draft cut from 20 rounds to 12 with a $200M hard-slot bonus system and high schoolers excluded. The union said the changes would cost young players over $1 billion across five years.
CBS Sports →Reported terms: a $245.3M cap and $171.2M floor for 2027, both including benefits, and a 50-50 revenue split with players.
MLB Trade Rumors →Minimum salary to $1.5M, luxury-tax threshold to $300M, free agency after five years for players 30+, no qualifying offer, and a tax on teams spending under $150M. No salary cap.
MLB Trade Rumors →MLB.com — CBA news →
League announcements and coverage
CBS Sports — CBA negotiations timeline →
Running list of every proposal
MLB Players Association →
Union statements
Kalshi — CBA before Dec 2 market →
Live prediction-market odds
What a stoppage means for card prices and Topps releases: read the CBA primer →
Inside the Vault sums up what moved each week: new releases, grading price changes and labor news. Free, every Saturday.